The Masters Preview
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Our articles will follow a simple, yet effective structure that will give you everything you need to be successful in the Daily Fantasy and Betting Space for the upcoming tournament
Course Description
Weather
Custom Model
Ownership
DFS Picks
Betting Picks
The Masters
Augusta National
Course Description
Augusta National Golf Club, located in Augusta, Georgia, is one of the most revered courses in the world and the annual host of The Masters Tournament. Designed by Bobby Jones and Alister MacKenzie, the course plays to a par of 72 and measures approximately 7,545 yards. It features a classic layout with four par 3s, ten par 4s, and four par 5s, known for their risk-reward potential and iconic beauty—especially through the famed “Amen Corner.”
The past three Masters champions are:
2024: Scottie Scheffler
2023: Jon Rahm
2022: Scottie Scheffler
Augusta National is famous for its undulating greens, immaculate conditions, and deep-rooted traditions, making it a bucket-list destination for golf fans around the globe.
Weather
If there is a day to score, it will be on Friday. Minimal winds and temperatures getting up to 70°F. The PM wave will get a slight bump playing in the hotter weather, but it shouldn’t be more than 0.5-0.75 of a stroke. Friday is looking to have a bit more wind, lower temperatures and some showers but nothing too heavy. I’d imagine they make them play through it which could cause some slight issues. Again, nothing too crazy. The PM wave will likely have softer conditions and higher temperatures which will lead to about a 1-1.25 stroke advantage. All in all, it is Augusta so anything could happen, but I don’t see that much of a wave advantage for this week. I would likely give a slight lean to the AM/PM wave, but only minimally.
Custom Model
My model took into account Course History, Tee to Green and Driving Distance the heaviest. With how long it plays, you are going to have to be able to get it out there far and with there being very little rough we really aren’t too worried about accuracy. With that comes tee to green play. If you can’t put it in the right spots then this course is going to eat you up. Augusta is one of the few where Course History plays a massive part in projecting finishes. I know I want guys who have played here and had success before well over those that have struggled in the past. I also factored in SG: Hard Courses, SG: TOT 2+, SG: ARG and SG: Approach. I went back and forth on doing the Strokes Gained metrics as weighted, but it was pushing the LIV golfers too far down for my liking.
Ownership and Picks
High Ownership Options:
Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler : High 20% range
Collin Morikawa: Mid 20% range
Russell Henley, Will Zalatoris, Shane Lowry: High 10% range
Sepp Straka and Corey Conners: Mid to Low 10% range
Keegan Bradley, Daniel Berger, Sergio Garcia: High single digits to Low 10% range
Pivots/Favorite Plays:
Jon Rahm ($10,500): He is looking to be the 2nd lowest owned of the 10k range (a good bit ahead of Ludvig) and it makes sense. Scottie, Rory and Morikawa are all playing great golf and fit the mold perfectly for this course. However, so does Rahm who is quietly crushing it on LIV. He has just one event outside of the top 10 since LIV Houston almost 10 months ago. 2 wins, a slew of top 5s and everything else very solid. He is gaining across the bag (granted against a “weaker” field) and is just two years removed from getting the green jacket himself. The best part for me is he is actually 1st in my model. Give me the slight leverage on Rahm this week.
Justin Thomas ($9,600): This one terrifies me because I don’t know if he can really pull through on Sunday here with all the attention. He has folded plenty as of late. However, his tee to green numbers are excellent and he has the distance to really make things work. If he can just hit a putt then I think he has a chance at being in contention for this week. He comes in 5th in my model which leads this $9,000 group. The ownership is right around that of Xander and Niemann who I also find interesting, but in general this range is not getting as much ownership as I expected.
Cameron Smith ($8,200): While the recent form isn’t the best, he is actually coming off a good finish with a T9 at LIV Miami which played like a championship level tournament. Conditions were incredibly tough and I think that is a good lead in for this one. I think the glaring red flag which is probably why his ownership is much lower is his approach numbers aren’t good. However, the man has it around the greens and has a great history here with 5 top 10s in his last 7 trips to Augusta. He is sitting right below Henley and Zalatoris who will soak up tons of ownership which will leave him as the odd man out.
Sergio Garcia ($7,100): I don’t really care about his ownership being at the top for the 7k range. This man is on a mission to make the Ryder Cup. He has 3 top 5s in his last 4 LIV events including a win at LIV Hong Kong. His approach play has been off the charts and he has gained off the Tee in every tournament since 2024 began. He is my big stand for this week and will be in a massive amount of my lineups. I just don’t see him pulling up here with the form he is in and continuing his poor Masters results of 5 MCs in his last 6 since his win here in 2017.
Michael Kim ($6,700): I think being the same price as Phil will have the casuals making that click which will keep his ownership slight depressed. However, if you are a golf junkie you know how well Kim is playing this year. He has since cooled off from his 5 straight top 15s he was posting in February and March, most notably a T2 at Phoenix and a solo 4th at the API. The big thing is it hasn’t been the anything other than off the tee that has regressed. He is still crushing it on approach, gaining 4.6 strokes last week in that category and has gained in 8 straight overall. His putting is good enough to make some waves here and if he can just find the driver again I think he can really push for a great result.
Best Bets
All bets are based on odds from Draftkings Sportsbook
Top Englishman - Justin Rose (+550): This is really a battle between Rose, Fleetwood and Hatton with how poor Matt Fitzpatrick has been. Fleetwood is the only one that scares me coming off of a T3 last year. Hatton hates this place and has been awful on LIV this season. I don’t think he (or Fitzy for that matter) are finding their form at Augusta of all places. My issue with Fleetwood is he isn’t the longest off of the tee which I think could pose some issues and he literally can’t win. Rose has shown the propensity to atleast push for top 10 finishes here as long as he makes the cut. He has been hit or miss in the elevated events this season with 2 MCs but the other two were both top 10s. He has some good course history and the number I feel like should be around
Matchup: Round 1: Cameron Smith vs. Aaron Rai, Smith (-130): Smith has elite course history and Rai has never played here before. I think Rai will get the yips of how daunting Augusta can be and not play well to open this one up. Smith has opened under par in 4 of his last 5 Masters and I expect that strong trend to continue this week. I feel like this number should be more like -180 or -200. Just way too close for me.
Score to Par: Round 1: Robert MacIntyre UNDER 71.5 strokes (+110): I think his game fits perfectly for Augusta and the recent finishes here back it up. He has a T23 and T12 in his only two starts which is very solid. Coming in he models very well, ranking 21st in the field and it is on the back of very strong tee to green play as well as around the green savviness. I am a law of averages guy and in both of his two Masters tournaments he started over par. I think the talent wins out and he finally gets an under par start.
Make the Cut Parlay (+2228): Jon Rahm, Shane Lowry, Patrick Cantlay, Will Zalatoris, Robert MacIntyre, Sergio Garcia, Patrick Reed, Cameron Smith, Adam Scott, Phil Mickelson
