Zurich Classic Preview
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Course Description
Weather
Custom Model
Ownership
DFS Picks
Betting Picks
Zurich Classic
TPC Louisiana
Course Description
The Zurich Classic is the only team event played on the PGA calendar for the 2025 season. It hosts 70 different teams of 2 and play as follows:
Thursday: Best Ball
Friday: Alternate Shot
Cut down to top 33 teams and ties after Friday round
Saturday: Best Ball
Sunday: Alternate Shot
TPC Louisiana is a premier public golf course located in Avondale, Louisiana, and serves as the home for the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. Designed by renowned architect Pete Dye and opened in 2004, the course spans approximately 7,425 yards and is a par 72 layout.
Key Features:
Greens: The course features TifEagle Bermuda grass greens, known for their smoothness and speed, providing a challenging putting experience.
Fairways: Bermuda grass fairways are well-maintained, offering a firm and fast surface that requires precision in shot-making.
Bunkers: Strategically placed bunkers throughout the course add to both the challenge and beauty of the layout.
Water Hazards: Numerous water features, including lakes and wetlands, come into play on several holes, demanding careful course management and shot selection.
Signature Holes:
Hole 18: A par 5 that allows for aggressive play, with water guarding the green, inviting risk-reward decisions.
Hole 13: A par 3 that requires an accurate tee shot over water to a well-protected green.
Playing Conditions: The course is known for its lush landscaping and excellent conditioning, making it enjoyable for players of all skill levels. The layout emphasizes strategic play, with risk-reward opportunities that challenge golfers to think critically about their approach.
Overall, TPC Louisiana is celebrated not only for its challenging design but also for its role in hosting professional tournaments, making it a favorite among both amateur and professional golfers alike.
Weather
Clearly it is quite obvious that this will be more of a test for the full field and once we make that cut down to the top 33 teams and ties, it will ease up significantly. Might as well lead with the obvious and that is there is no weather at all to speak of over the weekend. If I am trying to target a wave stack of sorts for Showdown for Saturday and Sunday, it is non-existent. However, before the weekend there is a good bit of gusts and rain in the forecast for Thursday morning. I don’t see much different between Thursday AM and PM at the moment. The AM pairs will have softer conditions due to the rain, but the PM pairs will have warmer temps and a little bit less wind. There isn’t much that should be a factor on Day 1. I don’t think I can say the same for Day 2. We can clearly see there is less winds by the afternoon which will give them a slight advantage. I think it will be about 0.5 strokes easier which isn’t much, but still something to take into account. I would maybe look for Friday SD at some PM pairings to target and fill out my roster with.
Custom Model
This is the one tournament of the year, being a team event, that you can almost throw the model out the window. There are almost no correlation stats to speak of so you really are just going off of the major SG numbers. For me, weighted strokes gained a sprinkle of Course History at TPC Louisiana is all I went off of. Take this data with a grain of salt.
Teams with both members in the top 50 Model Rankings:
Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry ($12,400)
Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama ($10,700)
Thomas Detry and Robert MacIntyre ($10,300)
Keith Mitchell and JT Poston ($10,000)
Ben Griffin and Andrew Novak ($9,700)
Wyndham Clark and Taylor Moore ($9,500)
Billy Horschel and Tom Hoge ($9,400)
Max Greyserman and Nicolas Echavarria ($9,000)
Sam Ryder and Rico Hoey ($7,900)
Kevin Yu and Jhonattan Vegas ($7,900)
Doug Ghim and Chan Kim ($7,800)
Chandler Phillips and Jacob Bridgeman ($7,600)
Nate Lashley and Hayden Springer ($7,400)
Ownership and Picks
High Ownership Options (By Price Range):
$10,000+
a) Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry ($12,400)
b) JT Poston and Keith Mitchell ($10,000)
$9,000
a) Billy Horschel and Tom Hoge ($9,400)
b) Ben Griffin and Andrew Novak ($9,700)
$8,000
a) Brice Garnett and Sepp Straka ($8,800)
b) Niklas Norgaard-Muller and Jesper Svensson ($8,500)
$7,000
a) Alex Smalley and Joseph Bramlett ($7,700)
b) Sam Ryder and Rico Hoey ($7,900)
$6,000
a) Dylan Wu and David Lipsky ($6,300)
b) Antoine Rozner and Kris Ventura ($6,800)
Favorite Pairings:
**I don’t have ownership projections for this week, so I am just going off of vibes.
Keith Mitchell and JT Poston ($10,000): My general thought is that McIlroy/Lowry come in at like 40% ownership or higher and will leave a lot of the $10,000 range lower owned. I really like what this pairing brings to the table with both gaining heavy in the Fantasy Points gained and T2G categories. Their recent finishes are very solid and Keith has some good history in this format with a 6th and a T4 in the last 4 years. I think they make a great pairing who can get really hot at times, but they would be considered boom or bust in nature so just know there is a floor.
Wyndham Clark and Taylor Moore ($9,500): Everyone is going to flock to Horschel/Hoge or Novak/Griffin just based on recent form, but quietly both Moore and Clark have been playing solid golf. Both are incredibly long off of the tee, so their normal approach shots on the alternate shot days will be from their usual spots. They gain well in the Fantasy Points gained category which is good for birdie upside and their recent success at the Zurich is great with both finishing top 5 last year and Moore specifically finishing 4th in both of the last two years. If my judgement is correct and they come in lower owned, I think they make a great pairing to have for high upside.
Ryan Fox and Garrick Higgo ($8,400): I am not a huge fan of this range, but I have always been a big Ryan Fox fan for his spike performances and Higgo is coming off of a big comeback win. They played together last year and picked up a top 5 together which to me is a big plus. They are both long off of the tee and positive gainers in the Fantasy Points gained categories so sign me up. There is a chance they come in a bit higher owned, but some people just don’t like taking guys off of a win and I think that holds true. You can’t take away Higgo’s impeccable recent form with a win, top 5 and top 15 in each of his last 3 starts.
Rico Hoey and Sam Ryder ($7,900): These two are very boom or bust, so there is a chance that they really don’t feed off each other well if things go sideways. However, when they are on their game they have big time upside and can score very well with both being inside the top 20 in this field in birdie or better. What makes them unique is they feed off of each other’s weaknesses. Ryder is poor off of the tee and a great putter where as Hoey is great off of the tee and a poor putter. That could come in handy on the alternate shot days if they play their cards right to give them a good advantage. They are coming into this one both in solid form and I think can really make a run at winning this if they can play off of their best qualities.
Dylan Wu and David Lipsky ($6,300): I honestly don’t care for many of the groups in the $6,000 range. Wu and Lipsky both are coming off of decent finishes and have some good history at this tournament. That is really it. A lot of these pairings feature one decent golfer and the other is a low level or KFT golfer that could really take away from their upside on the alternate shot days. All in all, there will be a group from this range that finishes top 5, but good luck predicting which one it will be. Lipsky and Wu seem to like playing in this format so I am going to hedge that they are the ones to do it. Also they are so cheap that you can really fit in the upper ranges well just going to them.
Best Bets
All bets are based on odds from Draftkings Sportsbook
R1 Birdie or Better Total, Garnett/Straka OVER 7.5 BoB (+105): Getting plus money on just Straka who is 2nd on tour in the Birdie or Better category feels like a win to me in a Best Ball format. If Garnett can just pick up a few himself then this team could go very low at times. I just think they will struggle on the Alternate Shot days, but for Thursday they can easily beat this number.
R1 Matchup: Hossler/Putnam vs. Champ/L. Griffin - Hossler/Putnam (-130): I think my personal bias might be coming into play here, but I just don’t think Cam Champ is that good. Hossler and Putnam are both solid golfers who are both great putters. That alone should make it much easier for them to go low on Thursday having two looks on the green every hole. I think you are getting a really good number on a pairing that I think is considerably better.
